Reported by CBS News, Trump said today the war is "very complete, pretty much." Iran says it will never surrender. Analysts say neither version is the whole story. Here's what the mainstream media isn't putting together in one place and why it matters to every Australian filling up their tank, paying their electricity bill, paying for groceries or trying to make sense of a world that feels increasingly unstable.
At BioHax, we cover wellness in the broadest sense, because your health doesn't exist in a vacuum. What happens to global oil supply hits your grocery bill, your stress levels, your anxiety, your air quality, your ability to afford the food, supplements and lifestyle choices that keep you well. The uncertainty alone, watching the news and not knowing how bad it gets, is a legitimate health stressor.
Geopolitics is a wellness issue. And right now, it's one worth understanding.
This Isn't Just About Iran
Let's start with the pattern, because once you see it, you can't unsee it.
January 3, 2026: US special forces seize Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from Caracas in an overnight raid. Trump declares the US will "run" Venezuela and that American companies will develop its oil reserves. Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, 17% of the global total.
February 28, 2026: The US and Israel launch Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is killed on day one. Iran's navy, air force, and missile infrastructure are systematically targeted.
Two China-aligned leaders. Two oil-rich nations. Two months apart. If that feels strategic, it's because many serious analysts think it is.
Venezuela had been selling oil to China at discount prices through Maduro, helping prop up Beijing's energy security outside of US control. Iran was China's second-largest oil supplier, exporting over 520 million barrels of crude to China in 2025 alone. In one calculated move, the US has inserted itself between China and both supply lines simultaneously.
And this week, the strategy came into sharp focus. A US-backed firm, North American Blue Energy, began loading nearly one million barrels of Venezuelan crude onto a tanker bound for China's Qingdao port. It may be the first delivery of Venezuelan oil to China since the US took control of the nation's oil sales. Trump didn't cut China off from Venezuelan oil. He put himself in charge of it.
Then today, Trump went further. Speaking to reporters in Florida, he said keeping the Strait of Hormuz open for China was his "honor" and on Truth Social, he posted that any Iranian attempt to block oil flow would be met with retaliation "twenty times harder." He called it a "gift from the United States of America to China."
A gift. With conditions attached. Delivered at gunpoint, right before a face-to-face with Xi Jinping.
That is not an oil grab. That is a leverage grab. China still gets its energy, but now it flows on terms Washington controls, at exactly the moment the US wants maximum leverage at the negotiating table. Beijing watches from the sidelines, unable to respond militarily without triggering a confrontation it isn't ready for, and now quietly dependent on the very rival it has spent two decades trying to outmanoeuvre.
As one Chinese analyst put it, America's deep involvement in military conflict in the Middle East "constrains its capacity to sustain pressure on China in the Indo-Pacific" but the flip side is equally true: China is being squeezed economically at exactly the moment the US wants maximum leverage at the negotiating table.
The Oil Chokepoint That Affects Everyone
Iran has been firing missiles and drones at US bases and assets across the Gulf and the middle east region since the war started. They're hitting neighbours like Iraq, Syria, and Gulf states because that's where US military infrastructure is: bases, command centres, naval assets. Iran can't strike the US mainland, so they go after the next best thing: American forces stationed nearby.
It's also a pressure tactic on the Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar who are allowing the US to operate from their soil. Iran is essentially saying: if you let America use your territory against us, you're a target too.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage between Iran and Oman. About 20% - 31% of the world's seaborne oil flows through it every single day, roughly 13 - 20 million barrels. Right now, it is effectively closed.
Ship tracking data shows a 70% drop in vessel traffic through the strait. Iran has threatened to "set fire" to any ships attempting to pass. A fuel tanker was already struck by Iranian drones in the strait this week.
This is not a distant problem. It is a supply chain shock that is already moving through the global economy like a shockwave and Australia is directly in its path.
What It Means for Australia Right Now
Australia imports roughly 90% of its liquid fuel. We have almost no buffer.
As of the start of 2026, Australia holds approximately 36 days of petrol, 34 days of diesel, and 32 days of jet fuel in reserve. Our emergency strategic fuel reserve has been classified as "non-compliant" with International Energy Agency standards since 2012. If a fuel emergency is declared, priority goes to critical services, defence, and national security. Not your car.
The numbers are already moving. Global oil prices surged to $119.50 a barrel on Day 10 of the war before settling around $112, well above the $100 mark at which markets begin to panic. Australia's ASX 200 dropped more than 3% on Monday. Analysts are projecting petrol prices could jump by around 40 cents per litre in the near term, with some economists modelling prices rising by up to $1 per litre if the Strait remains closed for three months. The US has now ordered non-emergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, the first such evacuation order since the war began. When diplomats start leaving, escalation is no longer a theory.
Beyond fuel, the knock-on effects are significant:
Groceries: Almost everything you eat spent time on a diesel truck. When freight costs rise, food prices follow. Not immediately, but within weeks.
Electricity: Australia exports most of its LNG overseas. When global LNG prices spike, domestic gas generators charge more, pushing up electricity prices, even though our gas supply hasn't changed.
Interest rates: The RBA is already modelling scenarios. A sustained oil shock could add 1.5 percentage points to CPI at its peak. If inflation re-accelerates, rate cuts get pushed back or rates go higher. That means mortgage stress for a lot of Australian households.
Airfares: Jet fuel is directly priced off crude oil. Expect 10% to 20% increases on domestic flights, more on international routes.
To add to the immediate supply chain issues, regional Australians are reporting empty bowsers and farmers say they cannot get diesel, the government's public messaging has been consistent: there is no shortage, just a spike in demand. On the Today show this morning, Employment Minister Amanda Rishworth insisted the situation was demand-driven panic buying, not a supply problem. Watch the exchange below and decide for yourself.
The China Angle: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Repositioning
Here's what's counterintuitive: China may not be the biggest loser here, despite being Iran's largest oil customer.
China has built the world's largest onshore crude stockpiles, estimated at around 1.2 billion barrels as of January 2026, giving it roughly 108 to 130 days of import cover. Its oil imports from Hormuz represent only about 6.6% of its total energy consumption. It has also been aggressively diversifying into Russian oil and domestic renewables for exactly this kind of scenario.
In the short term, yes. China is hurting. Beijing has already ordered refiners to curb fuel exports to protect domestic supplies. But strategically, the crisis may actually strengthen China's hand in ways that aren't obvious:
The disruption accelerates China's already rapid pivot to renewables and EVs, reducing long-term oil dependency. It makes other nations more dependent on China for clean energy technology and supply chains: solar panels, batteries, wind turbines, all of which China dominates. And a US bogged down in the Middle East is a US with less bandwidth to apply pressure in the Indo-Pacific or Taiwan Strait.
Beijing has been careful publicly. It condemned the strikes diplomatically but has done nothing militarily. It's watching, learning, and positioning, studying US and Israeli weapons systems in real-time combat, just as it did with drones in Ukraine. But behind the scenes, US intelligence now indicates China may be preparing to provide Iran with financial assistance, spare parts and missile components.
Beijing is being pulled in two directions: it wants the war to end because the Strait of Hormuz is strangling its own energy supply, but it also cannot afford to let the US establish total control over the energy arteries it depends on. That tension is the most dangerous undercurrent in this entire conflict.
Who Gets Dragged In? And How Far Could This Go?
This is where it gets serious. Here's an honest assessment of the scenarios, from most to least likely.
 Low Probability Scenario:  Quick Resolution (2 to 4 Weeks)
Iran accepts a form of conditional ceasefire, possibly brokered by Russia or Qatar. A new supreme leader (Mojtaba Khamenei has already been installed) negotiates terms that allow the regime to survive in diminished form. The Strait reopens partially. Oil prices retreat from peaks. US declares victory.
Why it might happen: Iran's missile capability has been degraded by 70 to 85%. The regime is under severe internal pressure. Trump wants a win he can sell domestically. Putin reportedly proposed terms to Trump this week. The new supreme leader may calculate survival over martyrdom.
Why it might not: Trump has insisted on "unconditional surrender." The IRGC, which controls real power in Tehran, has pledged loyalty to the new supreme leader and shows no sign of standing down. Iran's strategy was always about economic warfare and proxy attrition, not a head-to-head military showdown it could never win.
Medium Probability Scenario:Â Prolonged Attrition (2 to 6 Months)
This is the scenario most analysts currently consider most likely. Iran shifts away from large missile barrages (which it's running low on) toward drone attacks, proxy warfare through Hezbollah and Iraqi militias, and sustained economic disruption via the Strait of Hormuz.
Who gets dragged in:
- Hezbollah has already entered the conflict, opening a northern front against Israel
- Houthis in Yemen have signalled readiness to intervene if the situation escalates
- Iraq is increasingly unstable as Iran-backed militias face US strikes
- Lebanon, whose government has actually banned Hezbollah's military activities, is caught between its own law and its most powerful armed group
- UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain have all been hit by Iranian strikes already
Economic impact on Australia: Prolonged Hormuz disruption. The RBA delays rate cuts or raises rates. CPI spikes 1 to 1.5 percentage points. Petrol hits $2.80 to $3.20 per litre. Property market softens. Recession risk rises globally.
Higher Risk Scenario:Â Escalation Beyond the Region
This is the scenario nobody wants to say out loud, but serious strategists are modelling.
Triggers that could cause escalation beyond the current theatre:
Iran makes a nuclear move. Iran reportedly holds a stockpile of 60% enriched uranium - just one technical step away from weapons-grade material. It does not yet have a nuclear weapon. But if its leaders calculate they are facing existential destruction anyway, the calculus on whether to close that gap changes fast. This is why the doomsday planes, the US Navy's E-6B Mercury aircraft designed to communicate nuclear launch orders to submarines even after ground-based command centres are destroyed, have been deployed and publicly tracked in the skies this week.
Russia deepens involvement. This is no longer speculation. Multiple US officials have now confirmed that Russia has been providing Iran with satellite imagery showing the exact locations of American warships and aircraft in the region since the war began, described by one official as a "pretty comprehensive effort." Iranian drone strikes have become more precise as a result, appearing to deliberately target US command and control infrastructure. Russia is not directing Iranian strikes, but it is feeding the targeting intelligence that makes them more lethal.
China blinks on Taiwan. US intelligence now indicates China may be preparing to provide Iran with financial assistance, spare parts and missile components. Beijing has stayed out of the war militarily so far, and Xi Jinping is still preparing to host Trump in Beijing. But the pressure is building. China's foreign minister has called for the "flames of war" to stop spreading, and Beijing has been quietly pressuring Tehran to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which is strangling China's own energy supply. A China that feels cornered by US energy leverage is a China whose calculations could shift.
Gulf states take direct action. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been hit repeatedly by Iranian strikes. They possess significant ballistic missile arsenals developed with Chinese cooperation. If they conclude the US cannot fully protect them, they may act unilaterally or reconsider their alignment entirely.
What Could You Actually Do?
This is not about panic. It's about being practical. The people who weather these kinds of shocks best are the ones who prepared when they had the luxury of time.
Fuel: Fill your tank when prices are at the low point of the cycle, not the high. The ACCC is monitoring price gouging. Report it if you see it (accc.gov.au).
Download a fuel price app now, before the next price spike lands. The difference between the cheapest and most expensive servo in your area can already be 40 cents per litre. That's $24 on a 60 litre tank. Any increase in global crude oil prices takes roughly seven to ten days to hit Australian bowsers via the Malaysian Tapis spot price, which means the next wave from the current escalation is likely already on its way. Here's what to use:
Nationwide (all states):
- PetrolSpy (free, iOS & Android): real-time prices across QLD, SA, NSW, WA, TAS and NT, plus user-submitted prices for Victoria. Includes price cycle graphs for all capital cities so you can identify the cheapest day to fill up in your area. petrolspy.com.au
- MotorMouth (free, iOS & Android): colour-coded dots across more than 4,500 stations nationally. Green means a good price, red means you're being gouged. Useful for spotting exploitation in real time.
- Fuel Map Australia (free, iOS & Android): crowd-sourced with real-time government data for WA, NSW and QLD. Includes a built-in fuel log to track your spending and vehicle economy.
State-specific (most accurate where available):
- NSW & ACT: FuelCheck, government app with real-time prices from over 2,300 stations. Set price alerts for your favourite station and use the Trends feature to find the cheapest day to fill locally.
- QLD: RACQ Fair Fuel Finder
- WA: FuelWatch, government website updated daily
- SA: Government-authorised apps listed at cbs.sa.gov.au/fuel
Pro tip: In Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, fuel prices run in predictable weekly cycles with clear peaks and troughs. Fill up at the bottom of the cycle, typically mid-week in most capital cities, and you'll consistently pay less regardless of what's happening globally.
Groceries and staples: Building a two to four week pantry buffer of non-perishables is basic household resilience, not doomsday prepping. It also protects you against supply chain disruptions that have nothing to do with war.
Energy at home: Now is a genuinely good time to look at solar, batteries, and reducing gas dependency. Not just because of the current crisis, but because this crisis won't be the last one. Every unit of energy you generate yourself is one that can't be price-gouged.
Finances: If you're on a variable mortgage, model what your repayments look like at current rates plus 0.5% and 1%. Not because rates will definitely rise, but because knowing your buffer means you won't be caught off guard.
Stay informed from primary sources. Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera, BBC, and the Lowy Institute (for Australia-specific geopolitics) are your anchors. Social media moves fast but accuracy lags. The transcript circulating this week claiming Iran "destroyed" the US command centre in Bahrain is an example of content that is emotionally compelling but factually unverified at the level of detail claimed.
The Bottom Line
Trump's "war is very complete" line is the usual political spin... what he wants us to believe. The regime in Tehran is still standing, a new supreme leader has been installed, Iran's drone capability remains largely intact, its proxies are active across the region, and there is no clear political endgame.
At the same time, Iran's conventional military has been severely degraded. The question now is not whether Iran can win. It cannot. The question is how long it can sustain enough pressure to force a negotiated outcome that lets the regime survive. And whether the economic warfare it's waging through the Strait of Hormuz will be enough to bring international pressure to bear on Washington before the situation spirals further.
For the rest of us, including the 26 million Australians with 36 days of fuel in reserve, the real story isn't the bombs. It's the price of everything that runs on energy. That story is already well underway.
BioHax does not take a political position on the conflict. This editorial presents verified information from credible sources including Reuters, CBS News, Al Jazeera, the Lowy Institute, CSIS, Atlantic Council, and Australian government data. We believe our readers deserve the full picture.
